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Mathematical models are the tools to make forecast consistent - intuition and imagination are the way to enhance their content and to detect the risks of trend reversals. Our forecasts use both instruments: the formal mathematical part guarantees the consistency of the quantities, the intuitive scenario part provides the underlying arguments and possible alternative trends. For quantitative forecasts we provide a risk analysis.
Projects:
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Services Profile
- Analysis: Identification of important determinants on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis.
- Model specification: Formulation of the behavioural model and econometric estimation.
- Scenarios and risk analysis: Scenarios for exogenous determinants and analysis of the interrelations of endogenous factors, forecast and risk analysis.
- Presentation of results: The forecast and its methods are presented in detail und the results are documented.
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