Newsletter 11/2010
Deutsche Version
November 2010
Economix celebrates its 10th anniversary. On this occasion we updated our publication list:
We appreciate your interest in our work
Contents:
Financial services: Challenges and prospects
NAIRU and Okun`s Law: The macro economy in a nutshell?
Socially responsible restructuring
Monitoring the duration of working life in the European Union
Financial services: Challenges and prospects
The following three trends arise for the European financial services
as a result of the study:
A fundamental restructuring of the financial services is prevented by the big players. The industry continues with short-term profit strategies with a strong shareholder-orientation.
The effective regulation of financial market contributes to reorient the business towards sustainable business models and dries up high-risk financial markets.
No consensus will be achieved on a new financial world order and the financial and economic crisis will run out of control. Destabilisation will divide Europe both economically and socially.
The European Foundation for the Improvement of Working and Living
Conditions (EUROFOUND) commissioned this study. The report reviews
recent economic trends in the banking and insurance industries and
develops three scenarios for the next five to to ten years. It looks in
detail at the business models that are applied as a response to the
crisis and at the regulation alternatives for financial markets. The research was conducted by means of company-based case studies, an online survey and interviews with experts from companies, social partners, research institutions and public authorities.
Skills for green jobs
Challenges of climate change Das
NAIRU und Okun's Gesetz - The macro economy in a nutshell? NAIRU and Okun's Law - The macro economy in a nutshell? Monitoring the duration of work life in the European Union
In 2007 the average EU27 person aged 15 could expect 34.2 active years
during lifetime, and 31.8 years of employment with a working time of 61,295
hours in total. For the 45 years old, the duration of active working life
was 13.2 years and 0.8 years at the age of 65. Since 2000 an increase of one
year can be observed, which mainly happened after 2004.
The report provides an overview of self-employment in Germany. It was
prepared for the European Employment Observatory. Stellenangebot 2010-2016 is a private research institute based in Munich (Germany). It is specialised on labour market and training issues. Analytical reports and policy recommendations are developed on behalf of the European Commission, Federal and Länder ministries and other public institutions. The institute is part of a European research network. Kurt Vogler-Ludwig – the director of Economix – is consultant for the European Commission. Additional information can be found at
www.economix.org Contact Kurt
Vogler-Ludwig, If any question remains, please contact We will be pleased to assist you. If you want to stop delivery of our newsletter, please send an email to reference „CANCEL“
The study concludes that important adaptations have already taken place in European financial services: significant deleveraging, a ‘back to the core business’ restructuring, and the change of remuneration systems with a stronger emphasis on long-term incentives. Important challenges are nevertheless ahead: the naissance of a new regulatory framework for financial markets, the vulnerability of the economies to a second or third backslash of the crisis, and the new strength of Asian players.
Financial services: challenges and prospects –
Overview report
Environmental protection has strongly affected the structure of the German
economy and has led to the development of new occupations. The skills response
on greening followed an integrative approach rather than higher specialisation.
For the future development a further integration into non-environmental occupations needs
to be pursued and a higher occupational specialisation for the environmental
sector.
The report ‘Skills for Green Jobs’ aims to illustrate how greening of the
economy in the course of environmental protection influenced the establishment
of green skills and green jobs in Germany. Environmental protection has been on
the centre of public debates since decades and legislation and increments of
awareness have influenced the restructuring of economic sectors and occupational
competences.
The report is part of an international study on behalf of ILO and
CEDEFOP. As major methodology desk research, interviews and eight case studies are used. The case studies give a practical insight in the greening process of existing occupations and the establishment of new occupations
While an environment-related adaption of competence profiles is well
advanced in the industrialised countries there is no or a low adaption in
developing countries. In India for example hardly one of the 4,650 education and
training institutes offers courses in green technologies. Relating to
environmental policies there is no clear divide between industrialised and
emerging countries. China persues a comprehensive environmental policy, while
the US is lacking it. The failures in environmental policy and the slow adaption of
education and training leads to a lack of skilled workers and hampers
ecological change.
Report in German:
This thematic paper for the European Employment Observatory investigates the quality of two macro-economic approaches which relate unemployment, output and inflation. The non-inflationary rate of unemployment (NAIRU) relates price and wage expectations in an equilibrium model. Okun’s law describes the relation between unemployment and output. Both approaches have been challenged by the recent crisis.
The paper concludes that this type of macro-economic modelling is hardly able to reflect basic behavioural and structural characteristics of the economies. Moreover, statistical estimation methods have limited capacities to mirror the theoretical principles. The two concepts are thus no adequate substitute to economic modelling.
For the study on behalf of CEDEFOP, Economix delivered four company case studies for Germany, two each in the automotive industry and the telecommunication industry. The selected enterprises run (or commissioned) so called ‘transfer companies’ (Transfergesellschaft),
which are independent companies employing redundant workers during the time period of restructuring. These transfer companies support the employees via career guidance, individual coaching, training and work placements. Around two thirds of the employees are successfully placed in the labour market.
The duration of active working life for males aged 15 was 6.4 years longer
than for females (a difference of 20%). For females however the duration
of active working life increased more rapidly since 2000 (+1.6 years
compared to 0.5 years for males).
The longest active working life could be measured for the Swedish population, where a 15 year old person could be expected to work for 39.9 years. Denmark and the Netherlands were close to these values. At the shorter end were Italy, Hungary and Malta with duration under 30 years. This is a difference of 11.1 years between Malta and Sweden.
With this study the EU Commission seeked to investigate the duration of
working life indicator (DWL) which complement the monitoring instruments of
the European Employment Strategy by focussing on the entire life cycle of
active persons and persons in employment. The study suggests three
indicators for the measurement of the DWL: the duration of active working life indicator based on average annual activity
rates,
the duration of employment indicator based on average employment rates and
Monitoring the duration
of working life
There is an increasing importance of self-employment in the face of the financial crisis.
In 2009 around 11.0 % of the labour force (4.2 million people) were self-employed. Between 2008 and 2009 the number of self-employed increased by 1.7 %.
The high number of promoted unemployed of new founders is remarkable: Around 20 % of new founders were unemployed before.
This is mainly affected by the promotion measures of active labour market policy which, since the Hartz reforms, intensively promote self-employment.
Self-employment in Germany
The survey and estimation of job vacancies is undertaken on behalf of the
Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Labour Agency (IAB). Economix
has been awarded with the conduction of the survey for the years 2010 to 2016. The
autumn survey started in October 2010.
Tel: +49-89-8757-9022
E-Mail: vogler-ludwig@economix.org