Newsletter 12/2008
December 2008
We appreciate your interest in our work
and wish you a successful year 2009.
Contents:
The crisis of
economic forecasting
The German National
Reform Program
Exit Age: the
analysis of an indicator for the European Employment Strategy
This year we worked on the future of
On behalf of the European Commission we developed long-term skills
scenarios for two selected branches: textiles, clothing and leather, and the
financial services in 27 EU Member States. Both are branches with strong international
links, and are standing before substantial transformations due to the world
economic crisis. Restructuring will hit both sectors seriously and sustainable
business management will be a condition for survival. They will only survive if
they are able to re-organise internally. The times of short-term profit
orientation seems to be gone.
Interested readers – unfortunately – will have to wait until March to
May next year until our reports will be published. We will give a note!
The crisis of economic
forecasting
The world economic crises is also the crisis of
economic forecasting. As earlier – during the first oil crisis or the
break-down of the Eastern Block – the economic visionaries remained blind! The
German Expert Advisiory Board (Sachverständigenrat)
even failed to forecast the growth rate of 2008 correctly – not to speak of
2009.
This however is not imbecility, it has a method: econometric models can
tell us something about the past, which is different from the future as we
know. Macro-economic indicators don’t tell anything about market imbalances or
company restructuring. Economics don’t say much about political turmoil or
social distortions. Most importantly, however: we don’t know anything about the
future! We might have some guess, develop speculations or contradicting ideas.
But pretending and presuming certainty needs to be stopped.
This asks for new approaches: anticipation not as a single point
estimate, but scenarios, econometric models with simulation purposes, a stringent
risk analysis through political and social scientists. Extending
the field of vision through micro views: a detailed analysis of single markets
and the observation of company restructuring. In one word: a new type of
economic forecasting.
We will come up with that with an open letter to European economists.
The National Reform
Program for
This is something to read about an issue, which is hardly recognised in
the public debate: the National Reform Program for
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Facing the complex system of German federalistic education and training policies, an open process of coordination is
recommended which coordinates action and monitors results.
In detail (in Englisch):
Pre-Assessment
of the National Reform Program 2008/10 – Germany
Post-Assessment
of the National Reform Program 2008/10 – Germany
Exit Age: Analysis of
an indicator for the European Employment Strategy
Until now, the exit age from the labour market was measured by the so
called dynamic exit age indicator, that uses the differences of activity
rates by ages. This however demands too much from Labour Force Surveys. The
measurement errors from two independent population samples for EU Member States
are too big. The analysis recommends using a life cycle approach based on
survival functions which shows much better characteristics than the presently
used indicator.
In detail (in Englisch):
Analysis
of the average exit age from the labour force – final report
Job Vancancy Survey
The survey and estimation of job vacancies which we are undertaking on
behalf of the Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung
der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (IAB), is developed continously. Meanwhile, the survey is on the way to become
a European statistic. For this purpose the IAB and EUROSTAT organised a
workshop in Nürnberg in December 2008. In
Job vacancy statistics proved as early indicators for labour market
developments. The graph shows the results form autumn 2007:
If any question remains open, please contact
We will be pleased to assist you.
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